application of monte carlo simulation in evaluating agricultural production risk (case study: gorgan county)
نویسندگان
چکیده
agriculture sector has had a significant grow thing role in the iran, but growth and development in this sector is not possible without a suitable risk management. this study has tried to predict and measure the risk from changing weather condition on agriculture products of gorgan county using mont carlo stimulation as one of the powerful tools on risk analysis. the results showed that the highest level of production risk is for the crop such as barley, soya and wheat and the least level of the risk is for the crops such as bean, clover and pea, respectively. to sum up, the research results indicated a significant effect of production risk in this area and therefore managers and policy makers need to notice it.
منابع مشابه
Spatiotemporal Analysis and Health Risk Assessment of Nitrate in Kan River Basin, Tehran: Application of IRWQI and Monte Carlo Simulation
Introduction: Monitoring and controlling water resources and using health risk assessment approaches for water pollutants are essential for health promotion programs. This study aims to determine the water quality status and its spatiotemporal variation across the Kan River Basin, explore the interrelationship between surface and groundwater quality indices, and assess the nitrate health risk i...
متن کاملApplication of Monte Carlo Simulation in the Assessment of European Call Options
In this paper, the pricing of a European call option on the underlying asset is performed by using a Monte Carlo method, one of the powerful simulation methods, where the price development of the asset is simulated and value of the claim is computed in terms of an expected value. The proposed approach, applied in Monte Carlo simulation, is based on the Black-Scholes equation which generally def...
متن کاملRisk Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
So you're new to the idea of risk analysis, and you've got a lot of questions. What is risk? What do we mean by a "model?" What exactly is Monte Carlo simulation? Is anyone in your industry using this technique? This article is a simple overview to help you to understand what risk analysis is and why Monte Carlo simulation has become an increasingly popular and necessary technique for business ...
متن کاملMonte Carlo simulation study of droplet nucleation.
A new rigorous Monte Carlo simulation approach is employed to study nucleation barriers for droplets in Lennard-Jones fluid. Using the gauge cell method we generate the excess isotherm of critical clusters in the size range from two to six molecular diameters. The ghost field method is employed to compute the cluster free energy and the nucleation barrier with desired precision of (1-2)kT. Base...
متن کاملA performance study of the conceptual implementation of the GEM-tracking detector in Monte Carlo simulation
PANDA experiment (antiProton ANnihilation at DArmstadt) is one of the key projects of the future FAIR facilities to investigate the reactions of antiprotons with protons and nuclear targets. experiment is designed to serve as a completely extraordinary physical potential due to exploiting the availability of cold and high-intensity beams of antiprotons. One of the significant parts of the ...
متن کاملRisk measurement in the global supply chain using monte-carlo simulation
Nowadays, logistics and supply chain management (SCM) is critical to compete in the current turbulent markets. In addition, in the global context, there are many uncertainties which affect on the market. One of the most important risks is supplier disruption. The first step to cope with these uncertainties is quantifying them. In this regard many researches have focused on the problem but measu...
متن کاملمنابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایرانجلد ۴۶، شماره ۲، صفحات ۳۷۵-۳۸۳
کلمات کلیدی
میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com
copyright © 2015-2023